Wednesday, March 9, 2022

National Defence - PREPARE PREPARE PREPARE

 


The degree to which Canada’s ability to defend itself has been degraded is alarming. The situation in Ukraine has highlighted the fact that the post-WW2 world order is fraying. The west generally has walked away from confrontation, demonstrated a lack of resolve and abandoned allies in nearly every major confrontation since WW2. A multi-polar world similar in nature to pre-WW1 has emerged. We are sitting atop of a tinderbox comprised of strident competitors, a multi-polar geopolitical reality, a perception by our competitors that we are unwilling to throw down the gloves and a lack of realization on the part of leadership and the population generally how fast our way of life can end.

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Imagine a scenario whereby, the Ukraine / Russian conflict ends with Russian success. Imagine then that there is a push by Russia into eastern Europe. Imagine then, China sees the build-up of troops in eastern Europe and the resulting depletion of troops in the Pacific Region as an opportunity to take back Taiwan. Imagine then that China sees an opportunity to expand its efforts in a manner that challenges the US proper. Imagine the US military is preoccupied with this reality and Canada comes under attack and we no longer have the US to rely on to defend our country – as they have done vicariously since, it would be safe to say, 1960. Now we must defend ourselves. It is fundamental that as a nation we can defend ourselves, to hold our own territory against all comers. Presently, given the state of our military and the expanse that is Canada, we would be unable to defend ourselves.  Whether the need to protect our country comes via this scenario or another is really of no issue, the issue, however, is if the need were to come now, we are ill-prepared.

When the crunch comes there is only you and I to defend our country and the people we love. Institutions are absent the ability to fire a gun, you and I must do that. It is important that as leaders we prepare for the worst, Machiavelli in his book Prince and Principalities expounds on the obligation of the “Prince”, ergo leader, to peruse his territory and contemplate its defence – I am eager to remind you, the world has changed little since he offered this advice. I have thought a great deal about how we might defend Canada, it is a complex task. The only certainty in this contemplation at this point is that the military is under-resourced to do the job, it would fall to civilians in concert with the military to defend Canada. It is for this reason that we must prepare our civilian population for the task and introduce the military to civilians in a manner that facilitates a productive interface should the need arise.

OTHER THINKING ON THE SUBJECT

I am in constant contact with young Canadians, they are adventurous people – jumping from planes, skiing off cliffs, repelling off the side of mountains – they are fit and tough and what we will need when the chips are down.  Further, I am familiar with the cultural make-up of the million firearm owners, hunters and gun sport enthusiasts, people who we will need when the chips are down. We have four-wheel drive clubs, snowmobile clubs, and mountaineering clubs – all people we will need when the chips are down. We have a wealth of professional groups – tech specialists to engineers – all people we’ll need when the chips are down. The key to defending Canada is exciting the capacities of these groups to effect our defence. The sooner we call on them all, the sooner we integrate their willingness and capability the better prepared we will be. I believe, if you queried most Canadians, if we found ourselves in Ukraine’s position if they would you help defend us – they would answer yes.

The Swiss model is admirable, in that, every able-bodied person is trained to participate in the defence of the nation. The government, as a product of interfacing with their people through training, believes in its people enough to trust them to have and use firearms in an appropriate way. The only drawback I see in this model, as I understand it, is participation is mandatory. The model I would suggest for civil defence would be like the Swiss model, only less formalized and voluntary. The goal of creating an effective defence force is to extract human and physical assets from the civilian population in a way that mitigates the cost of activity the civilian population chooses to do anyway and in so doing you mitigate the cost of to government having access to those assets.

By way of example, of the million restricted and vetted gun owners in Canada many are enthusiasts and as such spend their time honing firearm skills in the military context. These groups, usually in gun clubs, could be approached and brought into the civil defence fold. If one reflects on Ukraine’s circumstances now, they are handing firearms out to people who have had little experience with them. I am a civilian that has spent my life in BC’s wilderness, and I am a pretty good shot, I think they would love to have me in Ukraine right now – if Canada ever suffers a similar fate, we want everyone with skills to be ready and available to interface effectively with the military. If the government were to approach this group and offer to provide them with military-issue firearms and supply ammunition to practice with, and to keep these firearms and sundry related items at the ready in the event of strife, many of this group would be happy to participate. Further, if the military were to offer attractive and exciting training opportunities, like repelling out of helicopters etc., along with a “community” / “social” element to the process the skill set of this group would be greatly expanded.

This model could be expanded to other groups as well, four-wheel-drive clubs, for example, have local knowledge, explore the countryside in groups of vehicles and would enjoy the opportunity to interface with military personnel in various ways. Many are hunters and pursue other outdoor sports, hence they have a unique skill set that represents an asset in the civil defence space – civilian evacuation, troop movement, munitions transport and the like. There is a huge resource in the civilian population in the form of existing assets that the government can access by offsetting the cost of ownership by intermittent payment, tax considerations etc. thereby, increasing capacity many many fold at little or no extra capital cost.

Formal military training is useful and can be provided via a modularized educational program. The goal would be to offer the training on a self-paced basis or to interface with civilian organizations' skill groups. By way of example, you may have a person in a gun club that is a part of the military program and is a heavy-duty mechanic – you could provide an online course augmented with onsite training to have them certified on equipment that is peculiar to the military – upon completion, you would reward this person for their time and offer other benefits for being at the ready and to retain their interests. This type of human capital comes at a greatly reduced cost relative to full-time military personnel.  

The reality at the moment is, that if Canada were in the same situation as Ukraine, we would have to augment military capacity with civil assets – so we should build out that interface NOW. The other reality is, if faced with a conventional army like the Russian army we would be forced to defend ourselves in unconventional ways. We’ve been taught these unconventional modalities in a very painful way in Afghanistan, we should take that lesson and apply it to our circumstances. We can teach people to be gorilla warriors, we can prepare for such a war and we should.

President Eisenhower warned of the “military complex” and its motivations and expansion. When the government embarks on procurement for anything, especially a new piece of military equipment, nobody is setting out save the government money, they are there to make money. I recently read an article about a new gun the Canadian military developed and purchased, a gun, when I divided the total dollar amount spent on the guns by the number of guns purchased, I arrived at a number of approximately $2500 – I am assuming this was a typo. At the fall of the wall, the Taliban was buying Kalashnikovs for about $50. The first 303 British I purchased I paid $30 for, and I could buy ammunition to practice with at Surplus Herbies for pennies a shot. We likely have millions of 303 British warehoused somewhere, they are old, outmoded, still, in the hands of a half million Canadians sitting on hillsides, they would be a serious thorn in the side of an enemy. Taliban, with Kalashnikovs, wearing sandals, sent the world's two most powerful armies home with unmet objectives – effectively defeated. While in Canada, Canadian moms are researching the safest SUV to drive Jonny to preschool, young Afghan kids are cutting their teeth on the butt of their Dad’s Kalashnikovs, listening to how great grandfather beat the British is a nearby pass and then again how his Dad killed a squad of Americans the exact same way 100 years later. The point I am making here, it is culture and the willingness to defend ourselves that will determine our success, if we are smart we can likely do it with what we have on hand – never underestimate the power of 34-0-0 and diesel fuel in the hands of the most resourceful people in the world.

I can hear many in Canada’s academic circles saying, Neil, you are advocating militarizing our country; this is an action that promotes war. Worse, you’re advocating trusting everyday citizens with firearms and knowledge related to defence. This is my question for them, how many are advocating returning to Afghanistan to promote human rights or to even bring to Canada the young Afghan people who risked their lives in the pursuit of our way of life – very few if any. Why? The Taliban offers too strong of a deterrent. I advocate these measures because I know and because it is a truth clearly indicated by history, that the best deterrent is capacity – capacity means the likelihood of my grandsons ever having to use a rifle is greatly reduced.  

 

 

 

 

 

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