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In analyzing Mr. Carney's actions over the course of the last few days, one wonders if he isn't gleeful at the decline and fall of the Western world order. He seems rather eager to embrace it. He also seemed quite willing to reference the "new world order" at his meeting in China. He then intimated that we might take up arms against our longtime ally in the form of the United States—a proposition that seems to me to be nearly delusional. It certainly is in practical military terms; it's just bad in business terms when you’re about to renegotiate a trade agreement.
I take a dim view of anyone that's willing to walk away from the most prosperous relationship in human history. Canada, having been the US's neighbour, has enjoyed a standard of living that is at the pinnacle of human existence. The US hegemony has effected unparalleled increases in living standards the world over. It's foolhardy in the extreme to bite that hand, in any way, shape, or form. Are we running through a rough patch with the US right now? We are. But we should be careful not to conflate the entire United States with one administration. I dislike the damage the present US trading policy is doing to world trade generally and to Canada. There are many in the United States who were happy with Canada’s favoured status; they may be less likely to come to our aid if our leader indicates that we would actually be willing at some point to take up arms against their country. At least we can take some comfort in the fact that the present US administration repeatedly seeks to effect peace, speaks of peace, sets up a UN-sanctioned Peace Board, and constantly refers to the horrible loss of life in human conflict—no threat of Article 5 from them or threat of violence against us.
Mr. Carney's assessment of the world's present trading circumstance is overly dire. Pessimism has had him head down the path of being destructive toward what was a grand arrangement for all. It's certainly the case that we need to diversify markets. It's also wise to seek friends in times of stress. The middle-power initiative as he went about it is likely seen as threatening to the established order. When they asked Mr. Trump about the China deal the first time, he said “that’s what Mark had to do” and expressed no hostility—after Mr. Carney’s Davos speech and Mr. Carney’s rhetoric around the Greenland issue, Mr. Trump’s tone changed. The rules-based trading environment is in no way gone; it's just challenged at this time—the WTO is there, the IMF is there, and the UN is there. Efforts should be made for the maintenance and enhancement of international institutions that have served us so well, as opposed to abandoning them.
The Greenland issue could have been handled better than to threaten the actuation of NATO’s Article 5. We have been partners in Arctic defence with the US for generations and we have had success. We should be eager to continue this relationship—or at a minimum avoid doing things to threaten it. Rather than taking such an offensive stance on the issue, we should have stepped up as an intermediary and attempted to broker an agreeable deal. We could have offered some of our territory for a location—Baffin Island or some other Arctic location. It is a very agreeable proposition to team up with the Scandinavian countries for Arctic security; it's foolhardy in the extreme to exclude or worse threaten conflict with our long-standing partner the US. The United States spends on its military around $850–900 billion (recent figures vary by source and fiscal year), an expenditure that exceeds all other countries in the world and an expenditure that has provided a security umbrella for Canada since the 1960s. The Scandinavian countries' total spending is far lower (in the tens of billions combined), while Canada spends around $40–55 billion (depending on the exact year and NATO definitions). The numbers and our shared history speak for themselves.
Reenforce friendships with “middle” powers? Yes. Diversify markets? Yes. Partner with Sweden on military procurement? Yes. Build a stronger relationship with Scandinavia? Yes. Offending the entire United States because you’re feeling “bullied” by one man? Stupid in the extreme.
