Better to Jaw than War - If war comes, we need the tools to confront aggression

I often listen to the radio; it seems you get a little more in-depth coverage on a given issue. The topic that prompted this blog post was the ethics associated with Artificial Intelligence (AI) as it is applied to warfare, and by extension, the automation of warfare.  The prospect of war is a grim, I dedicate most of my thought on how to prevent it; but if the fight comes, as it has so many times, we should be prepared.  Most importantly, however, we need to effect positive relations with world actors through aggressive engagement, the construction of a world narrative and trade.

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Precarious Cross Roads & the Unstable World Order

Presently, the USA, primarily and NATO hold world hegemony. NATO, of late, has inducted states that are less sturdy actors than the post WW2 “core group”. So within NATO, there are some fissures forming. NATO’s present organizational structure is sluggish to discipline bad actors. While NATO is clearly intact, and clearly the most successful alliance in history – external political pressures have had it appear to be a paper tiger at times. The fact is, in recent history, most “aggressive” military engagement has taken place under the banner of “a coalition” rather than NATO. While one appreciates the level headiness and prudence of NATO’s leadership, if ever there has been a time for a posture of strength, it is now. Greater effort on the part of NATO members to effect adequate resourcing and cohesion is critical.

While the USA and NATO still hold sway militarily, there are potential configurations that could emerge that would challenge NATO.  As was the case pre WW1, where there were four, more or less at par actors with uneasy alliances in play, the world today has a somewhat similar circumstance emerging – or rather, a similar circumstance could emerge if we are tardy in spotting the trend and responding to it. 

      

The Crumbling of the Westphalian Establishment

State sovereignty has been the cornerstone of world order. This order was effective in large measure historically because various modalities of discourse, interpersonal and public, were contained intra-nationally – states populations were to a degree isolated from one another. Even with the emergence of the television mass media era, there was a filter on the data that moved from one population to another. Now, as is widely evident, data moves between individuals nearly seamlessly regardless of jurisdiction.

The tendency is to view the “state” in geophysical terms, a group of people “own” the territory within a set of boundaries and that area is theirs’ to manage.  The truth is more abstract than that, the “state” is really determined by the strength of its narrative and the degree to which that narrative effects cohesiveness in the population or a collective identity.

The combination of these two realities is contributing the Balkanisation of the world order, as well as, introducing disruption and volatility to public opinion.

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Mitigation of threat – engagement engagement engagement and more engagement

Engagement is lacking in many ways, the full engagement between state leadership is lacking, deeper administrative engagement into the second and third tiers of respective administrations and finally, and most importantly, engagement of the world population generally. Engagement of the world population offers the largest opportunity to effect peace via a “shared” narrative and is grossly under-addressed worldwide.

 

A role Canada can play effectively in conjunction with other countries of “like mind” is to begin a concerted, well-financed and sustained effort to inform the world citizens of the value of our system and way of living. The value of personal sovereignty, property rights, the social surplus of markets, secular imperatives and the notion of a progressive thrust in governance. Canada, via the CBC, in a joint venture with the BBC, ABC and others could initiate a worldwide program to aggressively engage populations.  This is the quintessential oz. of prevention; $10 billion here would very likely stave off many of hostilities that loom on the horizon and keep my grandsons from the horrors of war. “Better to jaw jaw jaw than war war war” as Mr. Churchill taught us.  “We”  the “West” have spent trillions upon trillions in preparation for war, I submit, if we had spent 10 cents on every dollar directed to military spending toward evangelising the miracle that is the Canadian way of living, we would have created a functional world narrative and be further away from war now, rather than inching closer.

Militarily Oriented Geo-Political Up and Comers

At the fall of the wall, Russia was open to us and we frittered away the goodwill there. Now, again, rather than engage Mr. Putin, a man of conscience and a strong leader, we’ve alienated him further. We have grown in influence in Eastern Europe, but, at the cost of Russia’s goodwill. There is a growing anti-western sentiment amongst Russia’s young people that is a product of the lamenting of the transformation from the Soviet order to present day Russia and perceived slights from the west.

China has been extremely successful in converting from a fully command and control economy to a partially free market economy. Much of their success has been due to access to western markets. China has an operating model that parallels the operating model that brought the British Empire to prominence, authoritarian government and corporatist socio-economic structure.  There may have been an opportunity through the course of China’s evolution for the west to impart its core values in a stronger way, in some instances we’ve failed.    

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There are a number of other geopolitical areas of concern that threaten world stability, their exploration is outside the scope of this document, it suffice to say for the purpose of this document, that their threat as a causal agent in igniting a large confrontation is recognized – by way of example – the dynamics that emerged between the US and Russia in recent events in the Middle East.

The reason I call attention to Russia and China is that they’ve taken a “competitive stance” with the west. Competition can make us better; the challenge is that the ultimate competition, the unbridled confrontation between two or more global actors is a terrifying prospect.

Resolve – if a fish rots from the head, civilisations rot from the core, or rather, the disintegration and diffusion of core ideals.

The progression of Western civilisation has had, as an ostensible core value FREEDOM and this core value has been shored up in large measure by governance that has, under the adversarial realities of democratic government, hybridized social policy with a fairly well supported “free” market. This uneasy association has generated a standard of living unparalleled in human history. One thing that is most concerning today, however, is the willingness for this core element of western society to be compromised, prostituted or directly attacked within our society and its abuse ignored in jurisdictions outside our ambit.

The freedom from coercion and the freedom to act (complete liberty) as a core value, has advanced all people in the west. It was the dream of the “founders” of the enlightenment to create a state of being whereby people have a choice in belief, to build their lives founded on the discoveries of the critical mind, love and the metaphysical contemplation of their preference.  The protection, enhancement and propagation of this core value will make the unparalleled prosperity we’ve enjoyed in the West available to the rest of the world.

Churchill once said “courage is the most important virtue of all, as it guarantees the rest”, the core value of freedom, is the core value that ensures all the advancements the people pursue, and as such, it is the most important core value. It is our obligation to take this inheritance that has come at so much cost, by so many, and care for it. If this is true, and if all means of peaceful resolve are gone then perhaps war will become the only means to protect it.      

The Ultimate Competition – What are you prepared to do? - The Hammer  

War is an event that occurs when all else has failed, it is the ultimate failure in human relations. When it occurs, our participation should have been motivated by the desire to defend that which we hold dear. Defining what we hold dear is a key element of understanding the various thresholds for taking a war footing, defining what we hold dear is outside the scope of this document as well – people usually know good from evil because they taste it.

The Canadian Military is charged with defending Canada. In the context of world order, we derive most of our security from our association with NATO and our proximity to the US. Defending an area the size of Canada with a population the size of ours is a challenging at best; particularly so if Canada had to “go it alone”.

AI and automation are critical components of any future military development. I would argue that wars of the future will be won on a given participant’s ability to hold a reserve of raw resources and convert those raw resources into actionable assets the fastest.  To my mind, the question is how to use AI and automation, rather than whether to use them. The ability to leverage resources and minimize the use and risk exposure of personnel should be pursued with vigour – we need to be the best and the fastest, period.

Perhaps what we are prepared to do in our defence should be determined by what others have done in the past. We know that in history there have been actors willing to breach all international protocols in the unbridled pursuit of power. We know that in the face of that aggression “we”, “the West”, used Nuclear weapons in warfare. The answer is, in the ultimate competition, we have to be prepared to do anything necessary to win. Are there morally dictated gradations of engagement? Yes, however, ultimately, our actions are determined by the zeal of the aggressor.

OTHER THINKING ON THE SUBJECT

Islam More Pain or More Solution

Isis - Russia Dark Clouds are Forming

Islam & West Contemplations on way forward

Ottawa-shootings rational response, please

    

Islam & the West – World Peace - Recent Events Belgium

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"All that's necessary for the triumph of evil is for enough good men to do nothing" - Edmund Burke.

It has been the case since the dawn of time that those with the might make the rules; I have no evidence to the contrary in contemporary times. So what to do, always make sure that might resides with those who are intent on good. Good is a somewhat nebulous term, with plenty of opportunity for interpretation. Here is one definition for good people – people who are seeking to provide liberty to people, people who seek to influence human behaviour through a process of enlightening others, people who actually believe love matters, people who can look at the truths of others and accept them as being as valid as their own truths, people who hold humanitarian concern as paramount and people who have the strength to protect these goods by whatever means necessary.

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All faiths, all humanitarians, all people who are enlightened, have the capacity to pursue these goods and to withstand dogma that would have them venture into a violent sphere to promote one dogma over another dogma. The challenge is that the world’s population is made up mostly of the indoctrinated rather than the enlightened; even personally, I hold a Christian bias due to my exposure to the Canadian narrative and my family history – even though I make an effort every day to see the other side. When one is faced with tribalism, dogma and survival as the life equation, reason is no longer an option – one is faced with calculations like, conform to the immediate dogma totally or all that one loves is destroyed – conformity at this point is the only way forward. People who want to control populations always want conformity to dogma, this is the antithesis to democracy, secularism or pluralism. The desire for compliance is in no way peculiar to Islam, it resides in the hearts of many in western democracies, in the hearts of people who would rather impose belief rather than to let belief develop as people are exposed to the cultural tapestry there to teach us all. One needs grounding, mine was Christian and as such, all other thinking is held juxtaposed to Christian teaching – the difference between being a bigot and enlightened resides in one’s ability to permit belief to migrate as the facts change. The challenge with extremists is they are locked into one belief and they will kill to keep it or forward it; for them, the only solution is to subdue them and the only mechanism to do so is to be in possession of greater might.

Josip Broz Tito ruled Yugoslavia with an iron hand, an iron hand that insisted that factions got along – an enforced pluralism if you will. Under his leadership, the various factions, Muslims to Christians lived in close quarters, across the street from one another, peacefully. Absent the presence of Tito’s hegemony, Yugoslavia “balkanized” into several states and factional war resulted in a massive human tragedy. What is the moral of this story, having a Hegemon works, even when the hegemon is a benevolent dictator. Yugoslavia disintegrated before the very eyes of the present-day United Nations, why, because the United Nations is a place of talking as opposed to a place of action. One human tragedy of massive proportions after another transpires while United Nations watches, why, because the United Nations is a place of talking as opposed to action. Winston Churchill said, there is no use in having Judges and Magistrates absent a constabulary – passing judgement is a mere thought, acting on that judgement changes outcomes.

The Hegemony in the world now is NATO, the military might of a collection of the most progressive and prosperous nations in human history. Is NATO flawed, certainly, do we need to be able to kick nations out as easily as they are brought to membership. NATO – or a military force – that has as its master human choice is the Hegemony we need to support, build and improve. There are a cross-section of Nations that are members of NATO, Turkey is one of note given recent events, the organization is clearly dominated by the secular democratic imperative. The world hegemon now, from a single nation perspective, is the United States, the United States hegemony commenced shortly after WW2, please make an objective assessment of our world now and post WW2, and exercise judgement.  

The point here is this, we have a responsibility to protect the downtrodden, those that are affected by tyranny, those seeking a better life – the only way we can do that is to possess might sufficient to impose our will, the will that is driven by the desire to permit people to live with love, peace and prosperity. NATO has a multitude of influences at play, and it has taken some hits that have challenged its position as hegemon lately. If however, we develop it properly, if we give NATO’s ear to United Nations, it can be the force we need for good – it, in large measure, has been the reason we have enjoyed the peace we have in my generation – I am hoping it does for my grandchildren as well. The events in France are in no way of France, they are occurring because we have failed to get at the roots of challenge – one root is ISSI, there are many more. The paradox of peace has always been it must be fought for.

OTHER THINKING ON THE SUBJECT

Islam More Pain or More Solution

Isis - Russia Dark Clouds are Forming

Islam & West Contemplations on way forward

Ottawa-shootings rational response please

Islam & the West – Contemplations on a way forward.

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It is difficult to improve human action if you’re totally attached to a fixed set of beliefs. The migration of destructive human action to constructive human action requires the ability to manage innate human modality, it is innate in us to adhere to the “program set” we’ve been handed and to the people that share it.

One of the most constructive elements of a free market is the presence of “creative destruction” and the resulting “disruption” in the market place – it winnows out decadence, permits change and feeds dynamism. This phenomenon has advanced the material well-being of western society more than any other, its existence has been contingent on the acceptability to change course. The stasis that is effected by the dogmatic adherence to scriptures of any kind, precludes this important force to come to play in the advancement of human relations. This is in no way a call for a nihilistic bent in the approach to religions, but rather, a call to allow approach to modify in view of new knowledge while in pursuit of improved outcome.

Inherent in all advancement is heuristics, here again; the stasis that is effected by the dogmatic adherence to scriptures of any kind precludes this important force to come to play in the advancement of human relations. The rigidity placed on populations by religion tends to generate inertia, inertia of actions that are both good and bad. There has been inability on all our parts to break the cycles that are causing discord. 

Religion tends to want to “silo” human existence, in this way it fractures us and erects territorial boundaries, which become barriers to harmonious coexistence. Clearly defined and material territorial boundaries can normally be addressed with tit & tat, metaphysical territorial boundaries  bore of religion are ephemeral, ill-defined and come with a complex of beliefs and morays that reside nearly at a sub-conscious level – when these boundaries are breached, our identity and or state of being is challenged.

“Because religion seeks to give meaning to our lives, it’s bound up with all the components of our understanding of who we are; as individuals, as members of families, of communities, of nations, peoples; even as part of the whole cosmos. And when, in those contexts, we feel threatened or under siege, or lacking in respect or alone and humiliated, then we will utilize that which seeks to give meaning to defend ourselves.” Rabbi David Rosen

The challenge is to bring all parties to a place of commonality, to identify a common substrate on which human interface can take place, a means by which to leave erect the silos that religion has  built, but reach through their walls in a non-threatening way. There are many commonalities in the human condition, safety and security is one, the advancement of the one’s we love another. The one point of commonality that all are dependent on is the assembly and collection of material goods – this is the one point of commonality that religion strives to separate us from. Many in the peace movement see materialism as the enemy, the mere satiation of human desire, theirs’s is a pursuit to rise above the physicality of it all, to avoid being sullied by material want; there maybe or may not be merit in this as a personal pursuit, but it scales poorly and worse, it ignores the reality of the majority of earths inhabitants who scratch to subsist.

“Every day we are reminded of our differences and the reasons why there is confrontation and violence in the world. But what is truly needed is the opposite: to emphasise what unites us. Once we realise that every human being has the right to lead a dignified life our differences become less important. On this common ground we can work out how to live with our differences and take advantage of the positive opportunities that reside within them.”  HRH Crown Prince Haakon of Norway

Perhaps a commitment to a general state of dignity for humanity is the answer. Dignity is offered here in contrast to a largely a comparative assessment, but rather, as the human right to a “quality of being worthy of honour or respect”. It is certainly the case that in an intracultural circumstance a sense of dignity tends to be derived by a comparative assessment and absent a compelling rationale to see otherwise this is true of an intercultural assessment of dignity as well. So when addressing a negatively affected population, it is critical to provide a compelling rationale for a reduced state of being on their part; this is achieved by offering recognition for the sources of the negative outcome being endured.

  

Dignity is rarely present when material needs are unmet. We, in the west, live in a state of relative prosperity when contrasted to most of the world and certainly the majority of the Muslim World. This reality is a by-product of historical occurrences that brought European prominence to the world and much of the Muslim World. In many ways, the management of Europe’s withdrawal from the Muslim World at the fall of the Ottoman Empire left discord and marginalisation in the region and fear by the west of a resurgent Muslim World precluded the fair remuneration for resources extracted from Muslim territories. If a component of dignity is rooted in the material well-being, perhaps the provisioning the means to prosperity would focus human action on the acquisition of material well-being and away from violent action; thus harmonising the human enterprise and neutralising  theology a source of antagonism. 

OTHER THINKING ON THE SUBJECT

Islam More Pain or More Solution

Isis - Russia Dark Clouds are Forming

Islam & West Contemplation on way forward

Ottawa-shootings rational response please  

ISIS - Russia - Dark Clouds Are Forming

Should we "Extend and Expand" the mission, people chat like we have influence here, the mission is expanding with or without us, with us we direct the future, without us the future directs us. If we are complacent in dealing with this matter, many of your and my grandchildren are likely to die in conflict here on Canadian soil in the generation to come. Please look at what is taking hold as rage and orthodoxy forges governance ISIS-style - set politics aside - think long term. We have to be there and we have to WIN - AND THEN DO THE RIGHT THING.

Short-sighted, prone to repeated error, propagating the sins of our fathers AND worse letting one human tragedy after another unfold before us – would be a generous assessment of the west’s actions in our interface with Islam. I am so very tired of watching election cycles and the political short-termism steal a stable future from the Middle East; I am terrified how, what is in some cases a justifiable rage, will find expression in the fate of my grandchildren. Every error has been made since the fall of the Ottoman Empire, the path we've taken is there in plain view to reflect upon, the path that has resulted in people so desperate that strapping explosives to themselves and blowing themselves and others up is a viable option for a way forward. We are going to reap what we sow unless we learn from history, unless we maintain resolve in force, and most importantly unless we are generous on our way forward.

Islam is a mighty entity and even more complex in its factions than Christendom – It is comprised of in excess of 2.4 billion people. The West was locked in a struggle like this with the former Soviet Union, we adopted the “Containment Strategy”, put up a more or less unified front and persevered for 50 years to prevail - we won the Cold war and then gave up all the hard-earned ground by failing to do as Winston Churchill counselled us to do, to be humble in victory, which left Russia unstable and in effect abandoned – generating the circumstance we are now in with Russia’s desire to reclaim a little of her former glory and in conflict with the “West”.  The takeaway from the Cold War is this, with a consistent long-term strategy we will prevail in conflict, and in peace however, we need to be more generous and attentive – as “we” were with Japan and Germany post WW2.

From the twist and turns of events have to a degree merged two challenges, perhaps in an opportune way, and in a manner that supports the “coalition of active states (the West)” and the Canadian government in expanding the mission to include Syria. One of the inhibiting factors in being more aggressive in Syria during the Arab Spring was that Russia’s long time association with Syria compelled Russia to resist western activity there, that resistance is partially responsible for the emergence of a very unstable circumstance now, a circumstance that, it must be stated, has resulted in a massive human tragedy. The fact that ISIS is able to take and hold territory inside Syria to the extent they are able, to a degree base operations there indicates two things, firstly, the Assad regime is no longer viable (it never was “legitimate” by our standards) and secondly, the “Old” Syrian territory is within the “theatre” of war.  By declaring the “Old” Syrian territory part of the mission, the Coalition gains access to ISIS in a manner that is necessary to execute the mission and Mr. Putin gets a very important message, he now understands that by ignoring us in the Ukraine consideration for Russia’s past interests Syria is no longer a concern for the West.

The management horizon, for the challenges the “secular West” has with Islam, is generations. It took 50 years to bring some resolve to the Cold War with only political differences between us, in the case of Islam we have jealous gods at play and 1500 years of conflict – with that as a backdrop – how could we have left Afghanistan in just 10 years. It is going to take 50 or 100 years to effect the solution. The solution lies in Education – enlightenment to the fact that coexistence is the only option, the administration of force to maintain order and prevent human tragedy and the provision of parity in living in the Middle East in general.      

The West has had success in interface with Islam – Turkey as an example – we need to build on that model. There needs to be a concerted, long-term strategy put in place that is developed on the three pillars mentioned above and with the understanding, that this is at the very least a generational challenge, maybe longer. Unless we behave better and more consistently with Islam, one day an ISIS-like entity will gain critical mass, and the nascent dark cloud we see over the Middle East now will grow. The combined threats of Islam and the seemingly random multi-polarity that is in view at the moment worldwide is eerily reminiscent of the pre-WW1 era. Short-termism, weak-kneed foreign policy, complacency, arrogance and interstate discombobulation have cost us dearly in the past, we need to be working now to prevent them from taking our children’s future.  

More Thoughts on the Subject

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Afghanistan - Thoughts from the Past

Afghanistan - Thoughts from the Past

READING TIME - 5 MIN

This was my thinking a couple of years ago on the Afghan Challenge, now the west is leaving one wonders what will fill the vacuum. We may be there training (CANADA), but really, how much confidence can we have in the new military. To call the new order in Afghanistan "fledgling" would be optimistic. We have to do better, better than intervening and leaving the job half done, only to have it become undone as it has in Iraq. Please read and judge for yourself whether what was offered here was better than what is happening now.   

Modified Letter to Government.

In my observations of events around Afghanistan and Iraq, there has been one single deficiency in the overall approach, that deficiency being a desire to rush to a conclusion. While it seems obvious to me, and many others who comment regularly on Afghanistan, that moving a country from a medieval or feudal circumstance to a modern secular state requires thorough planning which contemplates actions spread over decades as opposed to years – the appropriate mission statement “by 2050 the seeds of a modern secular state will have taken root.” To try and plan action around the threats of the United States election cycles is most certainly going to result in painful outcomes rather than in pain for gain, and painful outcomes have been the case in Iraq to a large extent and now a similar possible reality is looming with Afghanistan.

By developing a culture of extended participation within the ranks of NATO, other non-military participants and the respective supporting electorates of NATO members, the situation may reach a management horizon which is tenable. The forces of oppression resisting progress in Afghanistan believe that if they provide chronic resistance the west will go the way of Russia. The west’s resolve must be demonstrated at every turn, and the message of extended western presence until the country has reached a clearly communicated and predetermined desired state must be loud and clear.

The inclination to simply “add water and stir” resulting in order is sorely evident in what has evolved in Afghanistan to date. Overwhelming military force and underwhelming attention to the long-term reality and cultural realities on the ground have contributed to a resurgent Taliban. If there is a single strategic correction to be made, it would be to seek a sustained burn rather than a flash in the pan. We’ve attempted overwhelming force and are approaching a decade of effort now, had we accepted that we were going to be in Afghanistan for a decade at the start, we would very likely be in a better place now. A smaller, well-fortified military presence will effect the change we want over time. Expending real military resources, public development resources and public opinion – Afghan and western - in massive quantities for a quick fix is foolhardy. We know it is foolhardy because the breath of very recent experience has shown it to be foolhardy.                 

It is time now to realize that we have to shape a society there that meets the criteria of a member of the world community, over time – time equals decades. A military presence which can secure itself and be sustained there indefinitely is required. A well-fortified presence which signals extended presence – presence until objectives are met regardless of time frame. The Taliban say we have the watches and they have the time and the defining victory by our leaving, as long as we are there they have yet to win.

There are many competing factions in Afghanistan, that when absent a common foe would surely seek a dominant position. Among them will be those that threaten to take the country down the path of regression and yet others who would seek a more progressive route should the right incentives and deterrents be put in place. Rather than being preoccupied with functional governance in totality now, it might be better to move the country forward in the direction of “hard” power for now, with functioning government in totality as an end goal. This strategy melds more effectively with the fractured nature of Afghanistan’s societal landscape.   

  

The present circumstance holds a gross asymmetry of power in favour of NATO, yet the Taliban seem, by many accounts, to be gathering influence. Rather than attempting to confront this reality head-on, there may be means to be more effective with a passive stance. If the west were to retreat to secure positions and only emerge to effect changes in the balance of power as competing factions from within Afghanistan seek to control, the bulk of the struggle would take place with NATO troops to the side. The strategy of passive support promises that over time NATO can shape the country by gradually supporting persons sympatric to NATO’s values of secularism and democracy. This sort of effort was demonstrated successfully in Iraq with support being given to the Kurds, a functional society emerged there prior to the last invasion and remains a functional region of the country to this day.   

I am extremely proud of Canada’s role in Afghanistan supporting a people whose existence is so meagre it is painful to contemplate. We have a choice now, to leave the country in the hands of the violent with subsistence as the only life modality or to take the long view that ensures a meaningful future for Afghanistan and a future for us.  We have to make peace, it is the paradox of peace that at times it must be fought for or earned over time. If we waver now, the violence we seek to end there may visit us here, a fate I want to nullify out of consideration for my children and grandchildren.  

Letter to Government

Afghanistan

The dialogue in the press of late around the Afghanistan mission is concerning. The tepid nature of leaders and prominent persons related to the mission is generating a sense of looming failure and emboldening the opponents of the mission. Even Mr. Rasmussen, while speaking on CNN, used rhetoric which was somewhat muted and included the statement “we may have underestimated the mission”. Senator Kenny was on CTV musing about another “Vietnam” and an ardent supporter of the mission and a past Canadian General stated, “we can’t stay past 2011”. In the absence of a clear definition of victory and the persistence of tepid or defeatist dialogue, the mission is failing not in the provision of security, but in the minds of generals and politicians.

We need clear leadership, strong leadership and bipartisan support. We need to set aside the weak-kneed adherence to political correctness and tell the Canadian public that while we have paid dearly with 130 Canadian lives, Canada is winning the battles in terms of military metrics and in the betterment of Afghan lives. There needs to be amplification in rhetoric stating the consequences of failure, consequences to NATO’s relevance and world political stability. Presently the message is weak or virtually nonexistent, once again opening the door to dissenters.

It is incumbent on leadership now to be clear both here in Canada and on the international stage. There seems to be a propensity presently by many to distance themselves from the mission, as the Afghan circumstance becomes politically risky. Post WW2 history is littered with examples of arrested military enterprise at the leave of meek leadership, with devastating consequences. We need to ensure at this critical juncture that attention is given to Afghanistan and that all the related ramifications of success or failure are communicated with clarity. A more amplified message may generate an environment to allow the kind of leadership to emerge that forms a public opinion as opposed to bending to it.   

Thank you for your leadership as Minister of National Defense and matters related to the Afghan mission, your support for the mission has been evident; it is my sincere hope this letter lends support to your efforts.    

Ottawa Shootings - Intelligent Action Must Be Informed Action

What is a rational response to occurrences in Ottawa? There is no rationale to constrain or erode my freedoms, or the vast majority of Canadians. There is a rationale for the Canadian Government to become more informed as an institution. The focus for our government in the aftermath of recent events needs to be to build intelligence collection capacity. Canada is ideally positioned to be the “information” broker in the NATO alliance, in efforts against terrorism and in efforts associated with maintaining world order.

Canada has a diverse population, all races and creeds are well represented here. We have many second and third-generation citizens of varied ethnicity and religious backgrounds we can draw on in building an effective intelligence network. These individuals are Canadian Patriots, well versed in their respective cultures and religions who believe in the Canadian vision; people we can trust to bring intelligence home.

Canada should direct resources away from conventional warfare to foreign intelligence gathering and cyber effectiveness. The most glaring deficiency in the entire interface with Islam, for example, has been the absence of communications - the appropriate gathering and distribution of information. By a rapid, massive and sustained expansion of intelligence capacity, Canada can become the information broker for all western security efforts. Information is power, information and its creative delivery determines the actions of Nations – investment here permits Canada to leaver defence spending in a way that allows greater influence than trying to function in the ambit of conventional military efforts. By focusing on foreign intelligence gathering, there are fewer requirements to impose on our domestic citizenry and put the focus of efforts where the threat is.

As it is better to “jaw jaw jaw than to war war war”, as an extension of the expanded information-gathering capacity there should be an expansion of information distribution. An expanded role for the CBC to broadcast to key jurisdictions and expand cyber information distribution would give the ability to speak to the people – to build better intercultural understanding.

The Canadian government should make robust efforts here; funds directed to conventional military efforts would find a greater effectiveness in this arena.  

Be Mindful of Fear - CANADA It will constrain us

In the aftermath of the Ottawa shootings, the fear level will grow. The loss of two young lives, one aligned culturally and one counter-culture is an absolute shame. Each was brought to a circumstance by different paths, one can deliberate of their respective paths, what is unequivocal, however, is that their deaths came from a conflict larger than themselves. It is important, however, to bring the loss of these two young men into perspective in the context of governance, policy and real threat. While there is no means by which to value their loss, there is a means to ground ourselves in reality so that the sentiment from their loss will be directed appropriately and proportionately.

To offer context, last year, direct deaths attributable to terrorist attacks were ZERO, and deaths attributable to preventable medical accidents 10, 000. Where, then, should the focus of legislators be and where is it now? It was reported that 3,000 people died in attacks related to 911, that same year in the USA, 100, 000 people died from preventable medical accidents – where did legislators focus their attention. It was reported that due to the fear of flying post 911 there was an incremental increase in deaths related to car accidents that exceeded deaths attributable to 911.  Due to the events around 911, there was an assault launched on civil liberties at a scale that would never have been permitted absent the skewed sense of risk projected by 911, as it was portrayed by the media and government. The United States Constitution is a beautiful document that should be held up as the preeminent example of freedom governance, post 911 there was an unprecedented incursion on the spirit of the document and by extension the American way of life. We need to be cognizant of what transpired south of our border, and bring the rational mind to the challenge, or we too will forfeit hard-won freedoms given to us by preceding generations to protect.

There is talk of preemptive justice, the capacity for state intervention when someone is “thinking about doing something”. We have as the most basic right, as a fundamental legal tenet the presumption of innocence and for our rightful state of liberty to be interrupted, the state must prove wrongdoing. There is no room here for preemptive justice, the notion is oxymoronic. It is the case now if the state can prove intent to harm, the state can intervene. We have the means by which to counter-terrorism, it is a matter of directing them correctly. In the event of a serious domestic or international event, we have the War Measures Act. Watch closely how our government responds to this, it is easy, especially in the face of a direct threat, for legislators to go too far and jeopardize our rights and freedoms.   

“The price for freedom is constant vigilance” Thomas Jefferson    

        

Islam - More Pain OR More Solution

Introduction

FIRST DRAFT

READING TIME: 10 MINUTES 

Equally true of France ...
Equally true of Manchester ...

Recent events that resulted in the death of two young men may have been a product of lunacy. Lunacy certainly had a part to play, lunacy founded on a chemical imbalance or lunacy induced by dogma or perhaps some combination of the two.  There has been a long-standing human condition, some have beliefs when others disagree, people get to die – and who better to incite to action but a person affected by illness. If only we could begin in some way to accept other’s truths to be as valid as our own. The reality is, however, that there are people who are unwilling to accept any truth but their own, so as a result, they seek to recruit young men (mostly) to do their bidding; it has always been thus. The question is then, what to do, acquiesce to other’s beliefs in the interests of civility OR fight. 

We are faced with a brutal reality in the Middle East, a reality that is a product of competing civilisations. I, for one, am eternally grateful for Islam – Islam that had life modalities that exceeded “our” own hundreds of years ago.  The reality is though, that we – Christendom and Islam – have found conflict for hundreds of years.  We have arrived where we are as a product of European adventurism in the Middle East, or at least, the west’s desire to dominate the region. Christendom's desire to dominate the region, is founded in large measure, I believe, out of well-founded fear – it is quite recently that Islam’s ladders were on the walls of Naples.

The fact is, we, Europeans, have in many ways sowed the seeds of discontent, we have left the young families wanting, and all the while piping Life  Styles of the Rich and Famous into their living rooms via modern media. The clear discrepancy between our living standards, the historical triumph of Islam, the historical “parity” of civilisations in contrast with the present disparity – have conspired to build a pan-Islam resentment of the “West”. We need to go to Islam with an access ticket to prosperity in one hand and a missile in the other and hope we all choose wisely. In Canada we live a privileged life, while we incur angst scouring consumer reports to find out the safest SUV to buy, Islam is incurring carnage – children pay. This disparity in human existence will find balance one day, we would do well to manage it, rather than have it manage us.

We need to confront “extremism” from a position of strength, we need to clearly exert our position – we need to be at once the bridge builder and the quintessential warrior.  We need to remember that the only means by which to confront extremism in Islam, is from a position of strength, it worked in the cold war, and it will work again. There can be no weak-kneed appeasement, only a clearly stated intention with a consistent and undiminished pursuit of that intention. Islam has seen the west deploy “might”, effect some devastation and then leave. Afghanistan is a classic example, the West wanted to add water and stir to arrive at a solution, the reconstruction of a nation is a multi-decade affair, we broached the endeavour between USA election cycles – we are paying the price.

Causation & Walking mile in Islam’s Moccasins

The grievances that drive the extremism in Islam are generations deep and correctly founded when contemplating Islam as theocratic “peers” rather than adversaries.  It is difficult to understand the collective pain that ensued at the fall of the Ottoman Empire, 1000 years of “supremacy” fell into disarray. I had an opportunity once to speak to a young Sudanese Islamic man, he relayed a story about his grandfather. His grandfather was an Islamic Scholar, an eminent man in his own right – in his own country. The British were occupying Sudan and the appointed British official had occasion to visit this young man’s grandfather place of work – the University. As the preeminent scholar, the young man’s grandfather was selected to “greet” the British official, upon meeting the British official a gust of wind came and blew the British Official’s hat off, the British Official ordered the young man’s grandfather to go get it. This represented a gross offence to the young man’s grandfather – of course. The young man and his family came into possession of a deep resentment of the West as a product of what happened that day.  This was an event that was more or less, trivial, trivial in the context of the death and mayhem that has transpired of late – the resentment from that event has lasted in excess of 3 generations. The moral of this story is that we have bred discontent by being content with systematised regional disparity.

The League of Nations Europeans “divvied” up the Middle East, in doing so the cleaved Nation States, Kurdistan and the Pashtun nations are two of note. This cleavage alone is causing discord; these nations existed as the Nation States for thousands of years, they evolved out of the land, the commerce that could occur there and the cultures the came to be. We are feeling the pain now for our willingness to simply draw lines on a map to get agreement – raw territory considered – the technocratic approach to settlement, nary an anthropologist insight.   

We had a cold war, remember, the spectre of the two titans facing off met the end of humanity, so rather than risk that happening, we had fifty years of proxy wars. The Middle East was proxy war central, one shudders at the human toll this took. This is in no way criticism of the West’s desire to prevail, we needed to win, this is a grim acknowledgement that in doing what was required, innocent paid, as is often the case – and it is understandable how one would be radicalized in the environment that emerged from the realities in the Middle East with the cold war realities playing such prominent role.

The Middle East has oil, the lifeblood of our world economy. Afghanistan, still untamed as a pipeline corridor for the Baltic oil and gas reserves to the lucrative and massive Pakistani and Indian markets – First Russia then the West. People often say “it’s all about oil”, as though oil is a trivial thing with profit as the sole consideration – stability relies on commerce, commerce is dependent on oil. People understand the stakes are high with oil, in commerce, in profit – and so oil makes the Middle East a target for power brokers.

Where we've failed in a most grievous way, is to use our might to facilitate our interests at the expense of local populations – when the opportunity has always existed to be generous. We must attach the profit incentive of oil to the local populace so that the wellbeing of children is accelerated as it gets caught in the generalised vortex of accent. I have a bleeding heart for the world’s innocent, most certainly, but this suggestion is bore of pragmatism, everyone likes to prosper, and prosperous people are normally peaceful people.

The people of Abraham have jealous gods at play and competing prophets, we have a metaphysical dog fight occurring and prophets at odds, make no mistake, that for many, this is in no way the rational pursuit of profit and territory, but rather the fight for theological unification and or the preservation of theological mass to then effect dominance in the application of religion. It is curious that the only pacifists in the people of Abraham are the ones holding sway at the moment, no thanks to pacifism. Christ, as a portion of our psychological construct, a truly gentle man who fell prey to persecution, has effected an archetype in the mind of Christendom that has vigilance for Christendom’s collective persecution and persecution’s prevention at the top of mind. There is no more dangerous dog than a fearful dog, there is no more powerful motivator than the fear of loss, there is powerful historical fact to trigger this concern in Christendom. It may be in part rational to conclude, that this has driven our actions and to a degree effected the marginalisation of many in Islam in an irrational or extreme way. 

      

To what degree is contemplating causality valuable, it is valuable to the point that it informs the appropriate interface with Islam. Islam has erred, Islam has been guilty of radicalising people – certainly, Islam has demonstrated the desire to dominate us in the West. We need to examine our part in this conflict and take responsibility for our actions – it is only from this point that we can understand the interests of Islam, our interests and forge a future together – the world is just too small now for regionalized civilizations – we are one big troubled family now, we need to start functioning.   

The Way Forward

It is the irony of peace that it must be earned with war, the sum total of human existence has found war as our constant companion, our most ugly constant. Peace exists where there is hegemony, it is the configuration of that hegemony that determines the length and breadth of the peace. Presently, the West holds hegemony, at the fall of the wall it was unparalleled, however, of late it is eroding. We need to be strong in NATO, relentless in response to aggression – but most importantly we need to realise how much of a marathon this is, and in doing so, us military action as a short-term measure to contain wrongful action as opposed to seeing it as the solution.  

In Afghanistan, constructive military intervention ended at the bombing of the caves, direct military intervention by Western forces on the ground was bad strategy looking for outcome in a time horizon conceived by military men, rather than by a truthful perusal at history.

You can subdue people, you can take territory – for a time – but human will - will always find it’s way to the surface because human will travels in meams from one generation to another. Like the young man I spoke to about his grandfather, lore builds cultural and over time the wrongs perceived gain mass rather than diminish. There is a cultural inertia in Islam to “get a little back”. The leader of ISIS is emblematic of this reality, he is a genius with a PHD in theology, how can someone who has such insight and time thinking embark on a mission as he has. By what means has ISIS massed, the means I believe has as a component our neglect of the innocent. Money gives power, Christendom has been reluctant to give its old foe power – TRUST is wanting; the outcome here has been people in poverty and general marginalisation, while often, sitting amidst a sea of oil going somewhere else, benefiting someone else. When there is a disparity between living standards, resentment and extremism thrive, when tummies are growling – this is doubly true.

There needs to be a cultural imperative in actors in these regions to seed prosperity. Presently, it is often the case commerce rewards government and ignores people. The oil majors and other actors need only do one simple thing, to provide in a direct way to the people, a portion of royalties paid the government. This could be achieved either through negotiating a portion at the table with government or budgeting funds as a part of operations, to fund the population – a very small investment would garner a great deal of goodwill. It is the reality that in order to get the government you want, you have to circumvent government and provision influence to people. The broader and more diverse the influence, the more stable society becomes over time.  

    

Winston Churchill understood war, understood humanity and the interplay between the two – his advice was “it is better to jaw jaw jaw than to war war war”. Jawing has been left wanting, at least the kind that directs a meaningful outcome. We have permitted the jaws of extremist Islam to remain wagging in a void of a meaningful counter measure. Even in the midst of media, a society soaked in media every minute of every day; we have failed to harness this resource effectively in swaying the Islamic World toward meaningful coexistence with us. 

We were in Afghanistan in a very financially taxing way – in lives spent and in money spent, “with boots on the ground”, for in excess of a decade. After bombing of the caves, what incremental benefit accrued to our interests? In fairness, there is a marginal benefit, but any gains are tentative at best. The primary driving factor in developing a policy toward Afghanistan was TIME, we in effect “pulled out the stops” in funding militarily action chasing a “timely” solution. What eroded public support for the mission, the death of our soldiers – “our” being NATO personnel?

If we had accepted 50 years for our management horizon, how might we have proceeded? We would have eliminated immediate threat, military intervention required here. Then what, would we have put boots on the ground, people in the middle of an insurgency, why? Let me posit my solution, a solution that is actionable today, as relevant as it has ever been – a solution, most importantly, that would have prevented the death and injury of our young people, a solution that would have placed risk where risk must be, with the beneficiaries of action.

We need do one thing, to build a vanguard in Islam that is aware of the value of secularism; that understands that secularism is the umbrella under which we all can live, that secularism is in no way the absence of theology but a place where all can thrive. Contemplate please, the time, the logistics, resources, life and the nearly trillion dollars spent, that went into our action in Afghanistan to date, hold those costs in mind when contemplating my suggested course of action – my solution draws from the success of Japanese industrialization, focus on effectiveness and let time take care of itself and draws from the success in Turkey where leadership enshrined, under the strength of the military, a secular imperative.

I offer as a solution to recruit to a boarding school environment youth and remunerate them, at as early an age as is ethical, perhaps age 12,. Recruitment would take place from every corner of the country. The facilities would have a campus feel, it is as important for people to experience the quality of life as it is to learn about it, having had it, the desire to maintain it is stronger. The curriculum would be theological, political and militarily based. Attendance would be perhaps 8 years in duration and attendance would be constant – save visits home if possible. This is would be a rigorous proposition for these youths, rigor required given their present fate. 

I offer this should be pursued with military discipline and intensity, at the close of a decade, graduates would number in the thousands – perhaps twenty thousand or more. This is an education mega project founded on the premise that knowledge rules, that proper education enlightens and that the innate good in people can only be actuated absent indoctrination and in a place of independence.

There are challenges in the actuation of this proposal, the outcomes here at worse are some educated young people, by far better than dead and injured young people. The best outcome would be in fifty years the seeds of reason will have taken hold, and a government, Islamic, that understands us and secularism would be present. Give me a trillion, I get it done.

Here is the reality we face if we persist with greed, ineptitude and ineffectiveness – the people of Islam will come here, angry,  to avenge generations of perceived injustice. I quake at the prospect of my generation’s failure leaving my grandchildren’s blood in its wake. Look at the carnage and discord in Islam now, it can come to us in the future. Islam’s children are paying for our indifference, for the indifference of their leadership and for a history of human disregard.  There is an alternate reality for us all, to deploy resources there to fight for reason and prosperity for the people of Islam, as their solution is our solution.

More on the subject 

Be Rational in Response

Participation in military action

Causation & the Way Forward